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Large Wall Street banks are starting to scale back compensation on trading desks as shareholders grow increasingly restless over weak returns.
Goldman Sachs [GS 134.08 
-0.93 (-0.69%) 
], Morgan Stanley [MS 22.30 -0.70 (-3.04%) ] and some other large U.S. investment banks are not just laying off weak performers and back-office employees. They are also cutting the pay of those they are keeping, scrutinizing expense reports and expecting even the most profitable workers to bring in more business for the same amount of compensation.
-0.93 (-0.69%) ], Morgan Stanley [MS 22.30 -0.70 (-3.04%) ] and some other large U.S. investment banks are not just laying off weak performers and back-office employees. They are also cutting the pay of those they are keeping, scrutinizing expense reports and expecting even the most profitable workers to bring in more business for the same amount of compensation.  |
Oliver P. Quillia for cnbc.com Morgan Stanley |
Wall Street has been overhauling pay practices over the past 2-1/2 years to better align incentives with risk. Banks have lifted base salaries, deferred bonus payments and introduced clawback provisions to protect against trades and deals that seem profitable at first, but may later go awry.
Wall Street pay reached new heights in 2009 and early 2010, in tandem with rising markets, but now the game appears to be changing. With the securities industry entering its fifth consecutive quarter of stagnant trading income — and expecting more difficulty once regulatory reforms take effect — banks are bolstering profits by restraining costs.
Bernstein Research analyst Brad Hintz said the big players must slash pay levels of managing directors by 20 percent to 25 percent, automate more trading and cut jobs.
On Thursday, Hintz slashed his 2011 earnings estimates for Goldman and Morgan Stanley, saying damage from low trading volumes would probably far outweigh cost-cutting.
James Freeman, founder and CEO of advisory firm Freeman & Co, believes that if trading activity remains as weak as it is now, overall compensation could drop 15 percent to 20 percent at large trading houses.
Only the strongest traders will survive, he said. "It's not a pretty picture. It's just, 'Eat what you kill."'
Wielding the Ax
While compensation is Wall Street's biggest cost, it's also the most difficult to reduce. Banks have been tightening staffing throughout the downturn, and they are reluctant to trim the pay of their top stars for fear they will leave for less-frugal competitors.
"Our clients have become more efficient over the years, and efficient clients do more with less headcount," said Deloitte Consulting principal Robert Dicks, who works with large banks.
"For top 50 percent performers, I haven't seen a real change in salaries. If I were in the bottom half, that's where we've seen a real change both in job security and in compensation."
One key difference from five years ago: A diminished focus on all but the biggest, most profitable clients, and fewer jobs available for traders who do not handle such accounts.
Pay and benefits represented 44 percent of Goldman's revenue during the first quarter, up from a year earlier and on par with 2007, before the crisis struck. At Morgan Stanley, compensation rose to 57 percent of revenue from 49 percent a year earlier, partly because of big losses in a trading joint venture with Mitsubishi UFJ Financial [MTU 5.05 -0.08 (-1.56%) ].
-0.08 (-1.56%) ]. Meanwhile, return on equity, a key measure of shareholder profitability, has fallen sharply.
Goldman's annualized ROE has ranged from 7.9 percent to 12.2 percent since the second quarter of 2010, down from more than 30 percent in the company's boom years. Morgan Stanley's ROE has been more erratic because of movements in credit spreads, the sale of businesses, a tax gain and Mitsubishi losses. It stood at 6.2 percent last quarter, down from 17.1 percent a year earlier and 8.5 percent for all of 2010.
At $430,700 per employee, on average, Goldman has one of the highest salaries on Wall Street. At Morgan Stanley, the average is $256,596.
Some shareholders have gotten impatient.
While bank shares have historically traded at multiples of book value, Goldman stock was at a premium of just 4.3 percent at Thursday's close, while Morgan Stanley was at a 21.7 percent discount.
Carret Asset Management, which has $1.4 billion in assets under management, recently took a small position in Goldman, but remains cautious.
"I thought Goldman at $130 was worth a look," said portfolio manager Jack Kaplan. "But there are risks involved. They're vulnerable to the trading environment — they're not making what they used to — and the compensation structure is a cost burden."
Pinching Pennies
Goldman and Morgan Stanley have been scrutinizing expenses in recent months. Goldman plans to lay off hundreds of U.S. employees this year and cut noncompensation expenses by $1 billion by mid-2012. Traditionally, the bank has kept a tight lid on travel and technology costs during tough times.
Morgan Stanley has cut weak performers in its wealth-management business and is using penny-pinching tactics to slash costs further. It has begun spelling out the cost of market data services, BlackBerry use, travel and other running expenses to employees, encouraging them to cut back.
"Numerous smaller opportunities ... collectively can be meaningful, given that we're a firm of 60,000 people," Chief Financial Officer Ruth Porat said at a conference last month.
The austerity measures seem to be having an effect on some traders, who have become more cautious in recent months.
"It's tense — everyone is constantly looking over their shoulder," said one former fixed income trader at a large Wall Street firm who recently moved into a risk-management role. "I'm not expensing lunch, and I'm taking the subway home."The recent spate of improving economic numbers, from manufacturing to jobs to the consumer, carries for some, a distinctly feline aroma.
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"That's your proverbial dead-cat bounce," Lakshman Achuthan, co-founder and CEO at the Economic Cycle Research Institute, told CNBC. "There's some false hope that there is a rebound here in the economy or in global industrial sectors in the second half."
Shorter-term indicators such as purchase managers indices, price inflation trends and the stock market have improved since late June. But they were still only ahead of lowered expectations and hardly indicative of a bustling economy.
At the same time, longer-term indicators, such as structural unemployment and foreign manufacturing, are still weak and likely to hold back growth, Achuthan said.
"The global industrial slowdown is going to be present through year-end," he said. "This is not a a transitory event."
Yet the stock market appears back in a familiar pattern that began when the financial crisis of 2008 and 2009 started to wane, in which economic news that merely beats expectations, rather than shows significant strength, is enough to spur buying.
Wall Street rallied Thursday, for example, when the monthly private sector hiring report from ADP and Macroeconomic Advisors showed 157,000 jobs created from May to June, a number that was well ahead of estimates.
ADP numbers have been on average about 41,000 lower than the monthly nonfarm jobs report that will come out Friday. Should that trend hold it would put total job growth at nearly 200,000, which is about 50,000 above the level to simply maintain the current jobless rate of 9.1 percent.
But the ADP numbers have been consistently inaccurate, and the weekly jobless claims numbers have remained stubbornly above the important 400,000 level.
Still, several analysts revised their projections higher from the original 90,000 or so new jobs expected to be reported Friday.
"They're not that fabulous but they are supportive of the view that the economy is stabilizing," Josh Feinman, chief global economist at Deutsche Bank Advisors, said in reference to the recent data. "We had a loss of momentum earlier this year, no question, and the economy's growth pace slowed down particularly relative to what was expected. In fact some people worried about a double dip. The recent data have helped allay those fears."
Factors working against the economy earlier in the year included the Japanese earthquake and tsunami as well as a spike in energy costs that briefly pushed prices at the pump past $4 a gallon. Japan's recovery has progressed, and oil prices have fallen, though food prices remain elevated.
Those two factors combined helped soothe fears that the global economy was heading for another recession.
But with the European debt situation given only a short-term remedy and housing and unemployment likely to continue to stifle US growth, talk of a robust recovery is finding considerable skepticism.
"As we go through the summer we're going to be concerned with some additional issues," said Kevin Caron, strategist at Stifel Nicolaus. "We're going to be talking about the debt ceiling. But more specifically when we look at the budget and what comes next—higher taxes and lower spending—up against the economy that still has a lot of slack in it, put some additional angst into the mix for the forward-looking projection for next year."
One other significant factor is in the dead-cat mix: The greatly reduced presence of the Federal Reserve, which has injected more than $600 billion into the economy through Treasury purchases over the past nine months but has said it is done with quantitative easing, at least for now.
The market's rally since September 2010 can be traced directly to the Fed intervention, more of which will be a hard sell politically and a risk to inflationary pressures.
"They're not in the driver's seat," Achuthan said. "They're lucky if they're in the passenger seat. They're probably in the back seat. The business cycle is the much stronger element here."
Achuthan said the "best-case scenario" is the "end of the year" for recovery. "That's if everything starts to lift from here, if the skies part and the sun comes out."
As such, investors either will be content with slow growth—likely to be in the 2 to 3 percent range for gross domestic product at best—or rebel once the dead cat stops bouncing.
"It's not like we should be expecting a rip-roaring economy," Feinman said. "Better, but make no mistake we have a long climb back to repair the damage of the recession and the financial crisis."
Large Wall Street banks are starting to scale back compensation on trading desks as shareholders grow increasingly restless over weak returns?
A. TRUE
B. FALSE
B. FALSE
As such, investors either will be content with slow growth—likely to be in the 2 to 3 percent range for gross domestic product at best—or rebel once the dead cat stops bouncing?
A. TRUE
B. FALSE
B. FALSE
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